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Euro on the brink? Will Germany announce the re-introduction of the Deutschmark?

Are we about to see the collapse of the EURO? This is an extract from an article by Dr Pippa Malmgren, Senior Advisor to USB, PREI and Advisory Board Member of Indiana University and SOAS.

From her September 2011 Policy and Markets Commentary:

“News to expect in the coming days and weeks:

  • Greece defaults
  • Germany protects German Banks but other countries cannot do the same thus quickly provoking multiple sovereign defaults and or bank failures, all of which may easily lead to a payments crisis in the global banking system. Derivatives are particularly at risk in terms of operation and execution.
  • The Euro falls in value especially against the US dollar
  • The Germans announce they are re-introducing the Deutschmark. They have already ordered the new currency and asked that the printers hurry up.
  • The Euro falls even more on any news that Germany is withdrawing from the Euro.
  • Legal wrangling begins as to the legality of Germany’s decision. Resolution takes years.
  • Germany insists that the Euro continues to exist even they do not use it any longer. They emphasize that European unification will continue and suggest new legal instruments to strengthen European Unification including new EU Treaties.

….The Vice Chancellor of Germany, Philip Roesler, gave a speech on September 11th in which he said there will be no more bailouts and any German politician who approves a single Euro for the debt problem of another European nation will not survive in office.  This is consistent with a German poll over the weekend that shows more than 70% of Germans oppose any more transfer of German wealth to nations with debt problems.

Please note his specific language: Roesler told the Monday edition of Germany’s Welt Daily:  “There should be “no limits to thinking” of possible scenarios of how to end the Euro crisis.”

The Germans have already concluded that if they are going to write any further checks then they are going to write them to their domestic institutions and protect their domestic investors.  Necessarily, this means that many Eurozone countries will default on their debt. It now seems this will happen within a matter of days. Germany has, therefore, already announced its intention to ring-fence and support their own banks and only their own. This may ultimately involve the nationalization of some or even all the German banks. This is necessary because a falling Euro will further weaken the ability of the other Eurozone members to meet their commitments and thus increases the risk of multiple sovereign defaults. Eurozone countries that are going to default will do so virtually simultaneously rather than sequentially….

….If any doubts remain about the German inclination to return to the DMark then consider these announcements. Switzerland announces a peg to the Euro. It was crystal clear at Jackson that the Swiss leadership expected an historic event to occur which would culminate in a rush into Swiss Francs. They tested the water by announcing a “fee” which would be applied to all non-Swiss purchasers of their currency. Within a few days they announce the peg. In short, Switzerland knows what is coming and has just barred the door to anyone who might try to escape the demise of the Euro by leaping into Swiss Francs.

The statement by the central bank in Canada is similar. I happened to be in Canada when the statement was made. Canadians were deeply confused. After all, to paraphrase, the central bank said, “all the bad things we thought might happen, are now happening, so we are going to maintain a highly defensive position”. In other words, Canada is also gently warning the markets that it will do what it has to do to prevent the currency from suddenly accelerating in the event of a European currency implosion.”

The potential for a further increase in Financial Market Volatility cannot be ignored.

To read the full article go to:  Principalis

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What are CFDs

In recent years we have seen a dramatic rise in people trading CFDs, and using them as a way to replace their original ‘job’ income, so what are CFDs?

CFD stands for “Contract for Difference” and is type of derivative and can used to trade a range of different financial instruments.  For Mom & Dad traders CFDs are most commonly derived from the value of shares or indices, which could be commodities, recources, shares etc. Indices can be a good starting point as they experience plenty of movement without the volatility which may be associated with individual stocks.

Why are CFDs becoming so popular? You don’t need to own the shares but can leverage against their value, so your trading money goes a lot further. You can use a CFD to make money on both a rising and falling market but as with any trading there are risks involved, so you must fully understand how CFD share trading works.

A CFD is a means by which two people, the buyer and the seller, can exchange money based on the movement in value on an asset, in this case a share. Shares are where most people start and the best ones to trade are shares that have high volume and volatility.

The real financial power comes with the margin. Unlike shares where you have to purchase them to their full value, with CFDs you don’t. Let me explain; ABC Inc. is trading for $25.00 per share, if you purchased 1000 shares this would cost you $25,000 plus brokerage etc. With CFDs you can control the same number of shares for between 5 & 10% of this value depending on their margin, this is set by the CFD broker. The result is, for an outlay of between $1250 and $2500 depending on the margin you gained control or $25,000 worth of ABC Inc.

How long do you control the shares for, that will be up to you and how you benefit from the share price movement, if you purchased or went ‘Long’ and the share price rises, you will profit from the difference between your purchase price and your sell price. If the share price falls, when you are ‘Long’, you are liable for the loss, so as I said earlier, there are significant risks because you have leveraged a large parcel of shares.

An added income stream can be dividends, if ABC Inc declares a dividend during the period you went ‘Long’ on the CFD, you will receive the dividend, so CFDs can be very profitable provided you know what you are doing and are sticking to your trading rules. Dividends are often one of the a selection criteria when choosing Companies for CFD share trading.

CFD share trading can generate significant capital gains, but do not treat them like short or long term share trading. The trading principals are very different as are the ways you can protect your position and I am not talking about stops, there are other ways like using covered options.

So what are CFDs going to do for your trading account, build it or bury it?

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Trading on the Forex: For Profit or Loss?

Dumb question?.. I hope so, but what you may not know is that more than 90% of beginners trading on the forex go out backwards, losing most, if not all of their trading capital!

Many people have become very rich trading on the Forex market and increasing numbers are finding it a very effective way to replace their day jobs. For the skilled trader, this market can make you a millionaire, for the fool it can leave you destitute, so no matter how attractive trading on the Forex may be, keep in mind that there are a large number of people who have been financially devastated by Forex trading. It’s a market that welcomes anyone prepared to put up the cash, but to trade successfully takes nderstanding, descipline and strategy NOT emotions. You need ice in your veins!

Free 5 Day Trading Course

People who blindly enter the Forex market are the ones who suffer, some build large volumes of debt in their desperation to reverse spiralling losses. So, before you begin Forex trading, it is essential you develop the necessary knowledge, understanding and skills to minimize the risk and maximize the potential of making money.

Try watching a 5 minute chart as it is being traded in real time, then predict which way it will go. How many times did you get it right? Your not looking for 5 pip movements, but 10-20 pips with minimal movement in the wrong direction to make money. So what was your success ratio? If it’s 50:50 you’ll go broke, you gotta be right at least 75% of the time, minimum!

Those who make big money trading on the Forex have all studied, building their knowledge and skills, testing their tactics and strategies extensively before exposing funds to the dynamics of this unique and sometimes highly volatile market.

The question is; Are you prepared to invest in your brain OR do you to go it alone and gamble your money?

Over the past couple of years the worlds economies have experienced and are still suffering major financial crises. In the last 12 months the $Aus – $US has had a major value shift with the $AUS moving from the 60 cents region to a high around $1.10. The Euro is being severely impacted by the financial crises in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Belgium , Ireland and Italy. The USA is still borrowing to cover is spiralling $14 trillion federal debt and has a national debt (personal, state and federal) in excess of $100 trillion. Then add the plethora of natural disasters.. and what do you have? A very liquid Foreign Currency market that can make you a lot of money provided you know how to read the signals.

Everone that is successfully trading on the Forex has studied, some with major financial institutions others with self study courses, of which there are many. Choosing the one that suits you can be difficult and don’t get caught by the all too common perception that high price means high quality. Unfortunately some of the most expensive courses are some of the worst!

Friends of mine paid a large sum for one such course and they were never taught how to set up and use different indicators, shown to recognise an entry set-up and confirming it with different time frames or even how to establish and test trading strategies. Needless to say they have not had much success.

A good Forex trading course should assume you know nothing and take you from the beginning, explaining every aspect of trading; From terminology to chart indicators, margin lending and leveraging, through to trading psychology and risk management, then teach you how to develop and test strategies that will become the core of your trading.

Try the 5 day free trading course, then if you like the system, move to the full course. There is no financial commitment.

If you enjoy this Free 5 day course and wish to continue, the main course is comprehensive, providing both PDF and video based instruction covering both historic and real time trading examples, plus regular updates on trading the current market. Reading only takes you part of the way, the ability to watch an expert trader explaining charts as they happen is an incredibly powerful learning tool. It will snap you out of any thought that trading on the Forex is predictable!

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Wave Goodbye to US Brokers if CFTC leverage rule happens

One often wonders what planet Bureaucrats inhabit, there is no way it can be the ‘third rock from the sun’, because if they did they would not arrive at such idiotic ideas as this latest hair brained scheme. Or maybe they want to crush the retail Forex Broker industry in the US, because that is the guaranteed result.

How could anyone imagine that retail trading Forex on a 10:1 leverage could ever be viable?

Keeping things simple, let’s say you have a $10k account and took a 1 lot trade ($100k) trade ( forget risk management for the moment), a couple of pips adverse movement and your’e on a margin call… mind numbing! If the trade went your way and you progressively locked in your profit, there is no way you could open even a mini lot to scale your trade!

Surely the CFTC has better things to regulate that this, or maybe they are too dim to realise that all this will do is send the industry offshore and depending on where retail brokers set up, the retail traders could be faced with even more risk due to a total lack of regulatory monitoring in some overseas arenas. Sure… countries like England, Switzerland and Australia, to name a few, are well regulated, but others are not so pretty.

So what to do? Try emailing David Stanwick at secretary@cftc.gov but remember any comments go public (including your personal info), so no rants, simply intelligent comments about the potential impact of this daft idea if it goes through.

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Penny Stocks Fortunes

Penny-stocksTalk to the big boys in the stock trading industry about penny stocks and you may get some unwelcome comments, yet many, probably secretly, trade these much maligned stocks. They know only too well the potential for massive, quick profits from the penny stock marketplace, so when the big value market is flat, they move to the microcap.

This shift in money will have a significant effect and if you’re in it, there are big profits to be reaped.

How so? Well look at the math: Major stocks command big prices and significant rises in value rarely happen with any rapidity, yet a penny stock can have significant value movement because the price is so low.

Say you had $5k to invest; a financial market stock might set you back $50 per share, so you would buy 100 units/shares. Now for those shares to go to $60 or a 20% increase, might take months or more, yet for a share costing a 1 penny, a 20% movement will happen in days, maybe even hours depending on market sentiment.

Sometimes a penny share will go from 1 to 1.5 or even 2 pennies in a matter of a couple of days, which will provide you, the astute investor, significant profits.

But as with any trading, a little knowledge will have significant advantages. Understanding the signals that can forewarn of movement in the share price will make the difference between rapid profits and price stagnation, so if this market interests you, learning how to recognise these signals so you make your move at the right time, will give you a significant advantage.

The penny stock market is not one I would every consider as a long term investment market, I personally see it as a quick in.. quick out market, similar to Forex scalping yet over a slightly longer time period, plus it will pull even bigger profits when approached with understanding of the dynamics.

If you want to get a better understanding of this dynamic market and learn how to read the signals, entry and exit points, based on predictable market dynamics, get the package, you’ll learn all about it and be provided with emails of stock picks, their entry and exit points plus much more.

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